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Real Estate Trends 2008

A sell-out crowd of more than 300 attended October's Real Estate Trends seminar.
By Heidi Ketler
A panel of experts satisfied
area agents’ need to know at the annual Real
Estate Trends seminar hosted by the Raleigh Regional Association of REALTORS®.“I found a group of people who were really hungry for information,” said
keynote speaker John Ansbach, following the event. President of Ansbach Communications,
Ansbach is a widely recognized industry analyst familiar to
North Carolina audiences.“This is a group that is certainly concerned with what’s happening in the
economy and industry, but nobody’s panicking.
They are aware that it’s going
to be a stressful time for them and consumers alike, and they are generally
interested in arming themselves with information to better serve their clients
.”Ted W. Abernathy Jr.,
executive vice president and chief operating officer of the Research Triangle
Regional Partnership; and Stacey P. Anfindsen, a real estate appraiser
with Birch Appraisal, fueled optimism by focusing their presentations on “the
good.”
Ansbach provided a reality
check in his first presentation,
“State of the (Real Estate) Nation,” warning of tough times ahead. He concluded
the Real Estate Trends seminar with an interactive study on Web 2.0 tools
to help REALTORS® add value to their services and reach emerging market segments,
specifically Gen X-ers, who are now in their 30s, and Gen Y-ers, who are
in their 20s.
The 'Positive'?
Anfindsen
kicked off the round of presentations with statistics as evidence of the
strength of the Triangle MLS market:
• Third-quarter
closings were the sixth highest in history.
• Current
eight-month supply is lower than the current national supply of 10 months.
• Average
house price appreciation has been 4 percent vs. the national rate of -4.8
percent. ·
Average price above the national averages is +4 percent for re-sale sales;
+8 percent for overall sales; and +2 percent for new listings.
•
Houses priced correctly sell in an average of 55 days.
The economic data and
analysis Abernathy presented offered further cause for optimism. “Every study shows continued long-term growth for the region,
with over a million new residents expected over the next 20 or so years,” said
Abernathy.
In his presentation, “Chicken Little, the Death Star &
Hope for the Future,” Abernathy explained concerns that are real and imagined,
based on facts: exports, gross regional product, and job and wage growth.
“In general we have
three major competitive advantages,” said Abernathy, “A
large amount of new research and development dollars flowing to the region
each year, three large world-class research universities and a consistent
ability to attract highly educated knowledge workers.”
Referring to them
as “talent,” Abernathy said, “We
continue to attract those workers due to job opportunities, a high QOL
(quality of life in terms of schools, health, safety, housing) with a middle
cost of living, and finally a wide range of lifestyles choices.”
Abernathy
went on to say, “If we can maintain our relative cost of doing
business and not become either complacent or have our ‘product’ diluted by
purposeful actions to spread wealth, then the next 20 years look like a very
positive growth time for the region.”
The 'realistic'?
Speaking from a national
perspective, Ansbach was not as encouraged. “No
one is going to escape this credit crunch. Banks are national. When banks
begin to tighten their belt, that will hit all of our belts,” he said. “Unemployment
and productivity are not bursting the bubble. This crisis is finance driven,
and that’s more problematic because it’s broader in scale.”
Ansbach believes
that
Raleigh’s healthy economic condition will likely extend the inevitable. “We
will see house prices come down across the board for the next six to 12 months.”
He
points to the fact that nationwide, there have been 71 percent more foreclosures
this quarter than the same quarter last year. Citing RealtyTrac data, as
reported by USA Today, Ansbach advised that by year’s end, one in
three properties for sale in the
United States will be bank owned.
Ansbach’s afternoon session
was directed to broker owners and managers, and shed light on emerging
markets, generational diversity and consumer empowerment.
“One of the top trends is having to adjust your business so it is attractive
to emerging groups, specifically women, Hispanics and young people,” he said. “It’s
all about tailoring to your appropriate target market. Those three groups
are going to largely dominate everything. They will be the target markets
in the coming decade.”
To become more women-oriented,
Ansbach suggests having more women in leadership positions within brokerage
firms. While women have long been a dominant force in the real estate industry,
few are on the broker side, he said.
Women leaders are associated
with how friendly a business is toward women consumers. “They go hand in hand,” said Ansbach. “It requires having women’s
expertise not just on the sales side, but expertise actually running the
business. If you don’t feel like you speak ‘woman,’ you better learn.”
The same goes for other
market segments. “Find out what works for each of
them. Find out what each group is looking for. Invest time in learning about
them."
For the Hispanic
consumer, Ansbach suggests hiring people who speak Spanish, are members of
the Hispanic community and have links to the leadership within the community
The 'technollogical'?
.Ansbach
said technology is the way to reach the youngest consumers.
“There’s a huge push to incorporate technology. Boomers are all about face-to-face
communication and personal touch. So are younger consumers, but they’re also
about text messaging and Web-based property-viewing and using high tech to
run transactions.”
During the session, Ansbach
reviewed Web 2.0 tools, like networking Web sites LinkedIn and Facebook.
Attendees watched as he created a professional networking site on the Web,
using the free templates and tools on www.ning.com.
“Once you have your Web site put together, then you market
it in traditional places, like fliers, at the office and on business cards,
to drive traffic so people can join your community,” he explained.
“The idea
of Web 2.0 is to create a dialogue about consumers and business, and between
consumers of business. It empowers consumers by providing an online community
in which to have a discussion.”“Web 1.0 was about transmitting data,” said
Ansbach.
“Web
2.0 is much more empowering to consumers. It allows them to take ownership
in a topic and participate in a community. ABC Realty can create its own
community, where all members when ready to buy a house know exactly who
they will call. Web 2.0 drives relationships and loyalty.”
The Web 2.0 media
may be new, but “It’s still about networking, relationship
building and community participation,” said Ansbach.
“Baby boomers are running
most of the businesses in this industry, but increasingly, consumers are
not baby boomers,” he said, adding that they may be 20 year
olds or they may be retirees. “You need to spend a lot of time teaching sales
agents and brokers how to empower their business to create great customer
relationships with all generations.”
Ansbach praised those
in attendance, saying “They understand that times
like these really require the expertise of a REALTOR® who takes the time
to come to these events and get more informed to be able to provide consumers
with more value.”
Ansbach’s presentations
are available at no cost online at www.johnansbach.com.
(Ketler, who lives in Roanoke, Va., has been a free-lance writer and
editor in the home building industry for more than 15 years.)
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