A Quarterly Publication of the Raleigh Regional Association of REALTORS®
December 2008 Issue
Vision Statement: "Anticipating and meeting the opportunities and challenges of our industry"
 


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March Dates to Remember

3/04 New Member Orientation
3/10 RRAR Board Meeting
3/11 Tech Fair
3/17 St. Patricks Day
3/18 New Member Orientation
3/24National Speaker Event - Presented by the Top Producers Council
3/28 Palm Sunday
3/30IDX-VOW Registration Training Session

 

 

Real Estate Trends 2008


A sell-out crowd of more than 300 attended October's Real Estate Trends seminar.

By Heidi Ketler

A panel of experts satisfied area agents’ need to know at the annual Real Estate Trends seminar hosted by the Raleigh Regional Association of REALTORS®.“I found a group of people who were really hungry for information,” said keynote speaker John Ansbach, following the event. President of Ansbach Communications, Ansbach is a widely recognized industry analyst familiar to North Carolina audiences.“This is a group that is certainly concerned with what’s happening in the economy and industry, but nobody’s panicking.

They are aware that it’s going to be a stressful time for them and consumers alike, and they are generally interested in arming themselves with information to better serve their clients

.”Ted W. Abernathy Jr., executive vice president and chief operating officer of the Research Triangle Regional Partnership; and Stacey P. Anfindsen, a real estate appraiser with Birch Appraisal, fueled optimism by focusing their presentations on “the good.”

Ansbach provided a reality check in his first presentation, “State of the (Real Estate) Nation,” warning of tough times ahead. He concluded the Real Estate Trends seminar with an interactive study on Web 2.0 tools to help REALTORS® add value to their services and reach emerging market segments, specifically Gen X-ers, who are now in their 30s, and Gen Y-ers, who are in their 20s.

The 'Positive'?
Anfindsen kicked off the round of presentations with statistics as evidence of the strength of the Triangle MLS market:

• Third-quarter closings were the sixth highest in history.
• Current eight-month supply is lower than the current national supply of 10 months.
• Average house price appreciation has been 4 percent vs. the national rate of -4.8 percent.
·   Average price above the national averages is +4 percent for re-sale sales; +8 percent for overall sales; and +2 percent for new listings.
• Houses priced correctly sell in an average of 55 days.

The economic data and analysis Abernathy presented offered further cause for optimism. “Every study shows continued long-term growth for the region, with over a million new residents expected over the next 20 or so years,” said Abernathy.

In his presentation, “Chicken Little, the Death Star & Hope for the Future,” Abernathy explained concerns that are real and imagined, based on facts: exports, gross regional product, and job and wage growth.

“In general we have three major competitive advantages,” said Abernathy, “A large amount of new research and development dollars flowing to the region each year, three large world-class research universities and a consistent ability to attract highly educated knowledge workers.”

Referring to them as “talent,” Abernathy said, “We continue to attract those workers due to job opportunities, a high QOL (quality of life in terms of schools, health, safety, housing) with a middle cost of living, and finally a wide range of lifestyles choices.”

Abernathy went on to say, “If we can maintain our relative cost of doing business and not become either complacent or have our ‘product’ diluted by purposeful actions to spread wealth, then the next 20 years look like a very positive growth time for the region.”

The 'realistic'?
Speaking from a national perspective, Ansbach was not as encouraged. “No one is going to escape this credit crunch. Banks are national. When banks begin to tighten their belt, that will hit all of our belts,” he said. “Unemployment and productivity are not bursting the bubble. This crisis is finance driven, and that’s more problematic because it’s broader in scale.”

Ansbach believes that Raleigh’s healthy economic condition will likely extend the inevitable. “We will see house prices come down across the board for the next six to 12 months.”

He points to the fact that nationwide, there have been 71 percent more foreclosures this quarter than the same quarter last year. Citing RealtyTrac data, as reported by USA Today, Ansbach advised that by year’s end, one in three properties for sale in the United States will be bank owned.

Ansbach’s afternoon session was directed to broker owners and managers, and shed light on emerging markets, generational diversity and consumer empowerment.

“One of the top trends is having to adjust your business so it is attractive to emerging groups, specifically women, Hispanics and young people,” he said. “It’s all about tailoring to your appropriate target market. Those three groups are going to largely dominate everything. They will be the target markets in the coming decade.”

To become more women-oriented, Ansbach suggests having more women in leadership positions within brokerage firms. While women have long been a dominant force in the real estate industry, few are on the broker side, he said.

Women leaders are associated with how friendly a business is toward women consumers. “They go hand in hand,” said Ansbach. “It requires having women’s expertise not just on the sales side, but expertise actually running the business. If you don’t feel like you speak ‘woman,’ you better learn.”

The same goes for other market segments. “Find out what works for each of them. Find out what each group is looking for. Invest time in learning about them."

For the Hispanic consumer, Ansbach suggests hiring people who speak Spanish, are members of the Hispanic community and have links to the leadership within the community

The 'technollogical'?
.Ansbach said technology is the way to reach the youngest consumers. “There’s a huge push to incorporate technology. Boomers are all about face-to-face communication and personal touch. So are younger consumers, but they’re also about text messaging and Web-based property-viewing and using high tech to run transactions.”

During the session, Ansbach reviewed Web 2.0 tools, like networking Web sites LinkedIn and Facebook. Attendees watched as he created a professional networking site on the Web, using the free templates and tools on www.ning.com.

“Once you have your Web site put together, then you market it in traditional places, like fliers, at the office and on business cards, to drive traffic so people can join your community,” he explained.

“The idea of Web 2.0 is to create a dialogue about consumers and business, and between consumers of business. It empowers consumers by providing an online community in which to have a discussion.”“Web 1.0 was about transmitting data,” said Ansbach.

“Web 2.0 is much more empowering to consumers. It allows them to take ownership in a topic and participate in a community. ABC Realty can create its own community, where all members when ready to buy a house know exactly who they will call. Web 2.0 drives relationships and loyalty.”

The Web 2.0 media may be new, but “It’s still about networking, relationship building and community participation,” said Ansbach.

“Baby boomers are running most of the businesses in this industry, but increasingly, consumers are not baby boomers,” he said, adding that they may be 20 year olds or they may be retirees. “You need to spend a lot of time teaching sales agents and brokers how to empower their business to create great customer relationships with all generations.”

Ansbach praised those in attendance, saying “They understand that times like these really require the expertise of a REALTOR® who takes the time to come to these events and get more informed to be able to provide consumers with more value.”

Ansbach’s presentations are available at no cost online at www.johnansbach.com.

(Ketler, who lives in Roanoke, Va., has been a free-lance writer and editor in the home building industry for more than 15 years.)

 

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Archived Issues

Other Articles in this Issue

CourseWorks
NewsMakers
Raleigh Area 2008 "Best Of" Awards
RRAR Board Officers
RRAR Store News
SneakPreview
Welcome New Members
Project Angel Tree
RRAR Awards Ceremony
Neighbor Helping Neighbor
Please Join The Raleigh Regional Association of REALTORS® For A Holiday Party
Be Forewarned
In the Spotlight
From the President
There She Is - Mrs. America
Williams Speaks About the Future
Perdue Speaks to TCAR

Raleigh Regional Association of REALTORS®
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Cary, NC 27513

Phone: 919.654.5400
Fax: 919-654.5401